Temperatures across the UAE are running around 3°C to 4°C above their seasonal average, with a relatively dry start to autumn expected to give way to above-average rainfall, according to Ibrahim Al Jarwan, chairman of the Emirates Astronomy Society.
Speaking in the direct line programme on Dubai Radio, Al Jarwan said residents were still experiencing warmer than usual conditions despite an overall improvement in the weather as the country moves towards its cooler months.
“Temperatures are currently around three to four degrees above average. Although the weather has generally improved, there is still relative warmth,” he said.
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He linked the conditions to El Nino, the naturally occurring climate phenomenon associated with warming in the equatorial Pacific, and said he expected it to intensify during October, November and early December.
Above-average rainfall was also expected as part of the pattern, he added.
Why is it still warm?
Al Jarwan said daytime highs during the first week of October would normally be in the mid-30s Celsius, with overnight lows around 22°C to 23°C.
However, he said recent maximum temperatures had ranged between 37°C and 43°C across much of the country, citing reports from the National Centre of Meteorology (NCM).
The lingering warmth was consistent with the relatively dry autumn conditions he had previously anticipated, he said.
While temperatures remained above their usual levels, high humidity was not unusual for this time of year.
Humidity and morning fog are seasonal
Al Jarwan said humidity in coastal areas could exceed 80 per cent on many days, while inland areas could see levels above 70 per cent, contributing to the formation of early-morning fog.
October and November are typically months in which fog is frequent, he explained, with morning fog occurring on more than 10 days in each month.
“This fog is natural, and the high humidity is natural, but temperatures are still above their average,” he said.
His comments drew a distinction between the season’s familiar humid mornings and the unusually persistent warmth.
How El Nino affects the weather
Explaining the phenomenon, Al Jarwan said changes in Pacific Ocean temperatures could influence weather patterns well beyond the ocean itself.
He associated El Nino with above-average rainfall in several parts of the world, including the Arabian Peninsula, while noting that its effects differed by location.
A stronger episode could be accompanied by more pronounced weather extremes, he said, ranging from drought in some regions to heavy rainfall or strong winds in others.
He stressed that El Nino is part of a natural climate cycle, rather than an environmental problem comparable to the depletion of the ozone layer.
When will conditions become cooler?
Al Jarwan said temperatures were expected to become more moderate in the period ahead as the UAE moves further into its autumn transition.
He referred to the traditional seasonal calendar used locally, saying the country was in the period known as “Durr al Sittin” and would enter “Durr al Sab’in” around mid-October a period of milder weather before winter that differs from the midwinter cold period recognised in the northern Arabian Peninsula.
Strong winds and rain-bearing weather systems could help accelerate the cooling, he added, although the seasonal wind event he referred to had not yet occurred at this time yet.
Earlier interview by Khaleej Times in which NCM weather expert Dr Ahmed Habib said the UAE was expected to experience a hotter summer than in previous years.
Habib linked the broader regional warming to El Nino, while stressing that actual temperatures would depend on the weather systems affecting the country at any given time.
He also explained that a thermal low associated with the Indian monsoon system was pushing hot air towards southern parts of the UAE, contributing to daytime temperatures of 47°C to 48°C at the time.
Habib said northwesterly winds carrying dry desert air were then limiting cloud formation and rainfall. He noted that the UAE’s main summer rainfall window typically falls between mid-July and mid-August, when a northward shift of the Intertropical Convergence Zone allows moisture to reach the country and supports rain-cloud development, particularly in eastern areas and sometimes around Liwa.
Source: Khaleej Times